Urban Electoral Coalitions in an Age of Immigration: Time and Place in the 2001 and 2005 Los Angeles Mayoral Primaries

Urban politics have been reshaped by large-scale immigration. What coalition patterns are likely to arise in an urban environment that has experienced dramatic demographic and political change? This study examines the 2001 and 2005 Los Angeles mayoral primary elections. Such non-partisan primary elections provide effective vehicles to measure core coalitions of citywide candidates. Our dependent variable is voting for Antonio Villaraigosa, a liberal Latino candidate associated with the rise of immigrant communities, running against James Hahn, a white candidate with roots in the African American community. Three core coalitions appeared in the primaries. In both 2001 and 2005, Villaraigosa benefited from a stable coalition that combined Latino mobilization with some white liberal support. Hahn’s core was among African Americans although that base had eroded for him by 2005. There was little evidence of a coalition of color in either primary election. A third alliance, a white-led moderate coalition drawing support from neither African Americans nor Hispanics, emerged unexpectedly as having great stability over both elections. If Los Angeles had partisan elections like New York City, candidates riding that coalition would have had a clear path into the general election by winning the Republican primary.