As Republican voters in Illinois head to the polls, we're pleased to announce a new feature on RSF Review: the Election 2012 series. Through the campaign season, we hope to add insights, data and commentary from our scholars and research programs to the political conversation. In our first installment, RSF Visiting Scholar Delia Baldassarri discusses the conventional wisdom about political polarization in the United States—and why it may be wrong.
Q: Although it is widely assumed that public opinion in America has sharply polarized over the past 40 years, your analysis of the evidence and scholarly literature suggests a more nuanced conclusion. What does the research show?
A: Over the last four decades, and especially starting in the 1990s, public opinion increasingly divided on a few specific issues, such as abortion, gay rights and the war in Iraq, while we observe relative stability and even depolarization on all remaining economic, civil rights, social, and foreign policy issues. Indeed, Americans are actually less divided in their opinion on the role of women in society, racial integration, and criminality than they were forty years ago. As new generations replace old ones, and women achieve higher positions in society, the collective mood shifts accordingly.
However, there is clear evidence of polarization among political partisans: those who are politically active, who identify with a party or strongly identify as liberal or conservative, tend to have more extreme positions than the rest of the population. In sum, while the distribution of opinions across the population has not changed a lot, with the exception of a few ‘hot-button’ issues, Republicans and Democrats are significantly more divided on a wide range of issues. This is a process of partisan alignment, which is partly consequence of the increased polarization of the parties, Congress, and political activists: since parties are more polarized, they are now better at sorting individuals along ideological lines.