Policy-Induced Migration and Public Safety: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

In 2021, in response to historic migration across the U.S.-Mexico border, Texas enacted Operation Lone Star, an initiative that transported more than 100,000 migrants from border communities to Washington, D.C., New York City, Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles. These transfers were politically driven, largely unanticipated by receiving jurisdictions, and unrelated to local economic conditions. Economists Jose Bucheli and Rhet Smith will examine how these sudden inflows of migrants affected local crime, policing, and public order. They will analyze data from the Texas Division of Emergency Management, the National Incident-Based Reporting System, the National Crime Victimization Survey, and other sources for their study.