Immigrant Revitalization? Estimating the Effects of the Venezuelan Busing Program on Violent Crime and Perceptions of Disorder in Chicago

Since 2022, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has bussed or flown over 50,000 Venezuelan asylum seekers to Chicago, IL. Abbott's' unilateral bussing initiative lacked coordination with other cities and state leaders. Contrary to political rhetoric that immigrants cause disorder and increase crime, abundant research in the past 30 years has shown that foreign-born residents in the United States commit less violent crime than US-born residents. Nevertheless, unilateral initiatives that disrupt traditional migrant flows may disrupt the immigrant-crime relationship. This project will use administrative crime statistics from the Chicago Data Portal, migrant shelter locations, and demographic information to investigate the association between the Venezuelan bussing program, public safety, and perceptions of disorder in Chicago neighborhoods. By using spatial analysis and causal inference techniques to examine whether, how, and in what contexts newly arrived immigrants impact Chicago neighborhoods, this research can provide important insights for policy makers throughout the United States as they consider the most effective ways to integrate political asylum seekers, climate refugees, and labor migrants.