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Non Program Activities

The Future of Families 2030

Awarded External Scholars
Barrie Stevens
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Project Date:
Award Amount:
$35,000
Summary

Over the last forty years there have been notable changes in household and family structure: increased international and domestic migration has led to a decline in extended family ties and an increase in diversity; increases in divorce and single childbearing have led to larger numbers of single parent households; longer life spans, coupled with the decline in extended family, have resulted in large numbers of elderly living alone or in assisted living; and the movement of women into the workforce has created the need for more childcare services. Changes in family structure can impact all areas of society—the need for housing and healthcare, the structure of welfare and education programs, patterns of migration, crime rates, and labor supply. On the other hand, families may be impacted by economic and social policies, such as improved education and childcare support, and by advances in technology – from improvements in healthcare that may change the needs of the elderly, to new modes of communication that are reshaping social ties and the concept of community.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is a unique forum where the governments of thirty-one democracies work together to address the economic, social, and environmental challenges of globalization. The International Futures Programme (IFP) of the OECD supports this enterprise by providing improved monitoring of long-term economic and social trends and developing scenarios describing possible future developments to aid in national planning. As part of this effort, the IFP has developed a project on the future of families from 2010 through 2030. The OECD project will bring together government officials, researchers, and foundations to examine the possible changes in family and household structure that may take place in the thirty-one OECD countries (plus a few others) over the next 20 years. The international exchange of experience and ideas will help participating countries explore differences and similarities in family structure across countries, examine the implications of family change for policy, and generate ideas for tackling emerging social issues. It is important for governments to have the best possible estimates of whether the trends seen today are likely to continue, creating the need for more housing, healthcare, childcare or other services, or whether new and as yet unseen trends will emerge.  

The project will progress through a series of stages. The first will identify and discuss the main drivers that will affect household and family structure. The second will compare results of studies that several countries have already completed on family and household structure. The next stage will assess the main implications of the changes identified earlier. Two topics that are expected to be especially salient are the role of older family members as recipients and givers of care, and the effects of low-income families on social cohesion. The final stage of the project will focus on the policies needed to deal with the implications of continued family change. The project will produce working papers and a final report in 2011. 
 

Academic Discipline:
Research Priority