Truth in Sentencing and Its Potential Ripple Effects: Recidivism, Labor Force Re-entry and the Well-Being of Children and Families

Truth in Sentencing (TIS) reforms eliminated parole, standardized release dates, and generally lengthened sentences in many states around 1999–2000. This study uses Wisconsin’s TIS implementation (effective December 1999) and a sharp regression discontinuity design around the policy cutoff to estimate causal effects on sentencing length, recidivism, and labor-market reentry for formerly incarcerated people. By comparing individuals sentenced just before and just after the cutoff, the study first measures changes in sentence lengths and then tracks subsequent recidivism and employment outcomes. It also examines spillover effects on families by linking individuals to family members, assessing impacts on household economic well-being and child outcomes.