Opportunity or Trap: First Jobs and Immigrant Integration in the United States

Early jobs shape immigrants’ long-term economic trajectories. U.S. refugee policy emphasizes rapid employment, but many newcomers enter sectors with limited mobility. This project studies whether early access to warehouse employment—an expanding, immigrant-heavy employer—promotes upward mobility or entrenches low-wage attachment. Exploiting the staggered openings of large warehouse facilities across U.S. cities (2005–2025), the study uses a staggered difference-in-differences design to estimate impacts of early warehouse exposure on employment, earnings, and career mobility. It examines both location responses (migration to new job opportunities) and placement responses (job assignment among local entrants). The research assesses whether warehouse entry serves as a stepping stone to higher-wage work or locks newcomers into low-mobility jobs, informing resettlement and labor policy.